Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 1.060088 1.114681 1.171036 1.233666 1.301457 1.372762 1.453623
2025-12-28 0.982881 1.061556 1.146133 1.244264 1.355552 1.478517 1.625597
2026-01-04 0.920983 1.012599 1.113818 1.234794 1.376595 1.538983 1.741140
2026-01-11 0.885867 0.988410 1.104304 1.246345 1.417649 1.620111 1.881425
2026-01-18 0.851996 0.962152 1.089010 1.247803 1.444019 1.682372 2.000036
2026-01-25 0.833917 0.952506 1.091531 1.269121 1.493831 1.774332 2.160528
2026-02-01 0.796114 0.916873 1.060297 1.246274 1.485813 1.791074 2.222071
2026-02-08 0.757518 0.878353 1.023415 1.213872 1.462864 1.785795 2.251735
2026-02-15 0.732732 0.855621 1.004812 1.203274 1.466873 1.815265 2.329970
2026-02-22 0.715092 0.840899 0.995349 1.203539 1.484552 1.863249 2.436722
2026-03-01 0.691077 0.817169 0.973349 1.186101 1.477022 1.875326 2.490923
2026-03-08 0.662726 0.786975 0.941922 1.154722 1.448663 1.856130 2.496176
2026-03-15 0.644396 0.769677 0.927382 1.146431 1.453298 1.886195 2.582079
2026-03-22 0.634440 0.762865 0.926283 1.156259 1.483800 1.955546 2.735268
2026-03-29 0.617997 0.746964 0.912463 1.147779 1.487348 1.984627 2.825401
2026-04-05 0.609831 0.741590 0.912352 1.158130 1.518381 2.056649 2.992356
2026-04-12 0.598834 0.732038 0.906156 1.159435 1.535812 2.108289 3.128727
2026-04-19 0.594889 0.731713 0.912379 1.178521 1.580587 2.205536 3.354582
2026-04-26 0.577327 0.712477 0.891913 1.158065 1.563801 2.202078 3.396279
2026-05-03 0.557647 0.689891 0.866184 1.129020 1.532427 2.172820 3.387004
2026-05-10 0.545500 0.677294 0.854029 1.119511 1.531065 2.193225 3.473882
2026-05-17 0.537172 0.669699 0.848631 1.119749 1.544934 2.239856 3.615929
2026-05-24 0.524049 0.655166 0.833016 1.104093 1.532614 2.240665 3.666129